Outgrowing Earth’s Resources

Computing has always consumed energy and water. However, the growing ambitions of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry are pushing demand to an unprecedented scale. As pressures on planetary resources mount, data centers in orbit around Earth have been pitched as a solution. Orbital data centers relocate critical infrastructure into a contested domain where the boundaries between civilian and military systems blur, satellites become strategic targets, and systemic disruption becomes a tool of coercion.

Water as a Hidden Driver of Digital Infrastructure Conflict

At the core of this issue is the intersection of water, energy, and computing power. AI infrastructure heavily depends on already strained freshwater and energy systems for cooling, energy generation, and semiconductor manufacturing. Research by Li et al. from 2025 estimates that training large language models such as ChatGPT may be responsible for the consumption of as much as 700,000 liters of freshwater, depending on data center location and cooling practices. Semiconductor fabrication for AI chip production can also be highly water-intensive, with advanced facilities reportedly using up to 38 million liters of ultrapure water every day. This treated water is hundreds of times cleaner than drinking water..  These demands do not arise from a fundamentally new category of infrastructure, but from the scaling of pre-existing computational systems that have long depended on water- and energy-intensive processes.

This growing demand amplifies pre-existing spatial inequalities related to the location of infrastructure, the concentration of data centers in regions already experiencing water stress, and the subsequent translation of local hydrological constraints into systemic pressures on digital infrastructure (see studies by Kseibati and Siddik). In line with this trend, Zohar Barnett-Itzhaki found that approximately two-thirds of data centers built after 2022 are located in water-stressed areas. 

Proposals for Orbital Data Centers

Another fundamental constraint at the nexus of cooling, energy, and semiconductor performance is the physics of heat transfer. AI data centers produce vast amounts of heat that must be managed. It is at this point in the debate – where thermal limits and resource availability begin to converge under increasing computational load – where the debate around proposals for orbital data centers usually begins. Within the cold vacuum of space, and alongside the continuous flux of the Sun, orbital environments are sometimes framed as offering relief from terrestrial water and energy constraints. Yet this overlooks that the orbital and atmospheric environment that is imagined as a passive receptacle for the undesirable impacts of AI infrastructure would also be the medium on which that infrastructure would depend. The proposed solution thus amounts to an ‘exo-atmospheric’ externalization of infrastructure costs, in which inequality is not resolved but re-inscribed into a system where valuable places in orbit are effectively reserved for those with the resources to access and sustain them.

Outer Space: Orbital Dynamics

The vacuum of space does not provide effortless cooling but relies on radiative heat transfer, a process requiring large surface areas and specific orbital configurations. Orbital geometries, including sun-synchronous and terminator orbits, need to be selected in such a way that spacecraft can maintain continuous solar illumination for power generation These demands compound the need for large and complex orbital systems to be embedded within already congested orbital domains, ultimately driving up collision risks.

At the same time, running advanced AI workloads depends on specialized semiconductor hardware that is already constrained by high power density and tightly managed thermal budgets. Beyond thermal limitations, the vacuum of space introduces a persistent risk of single event upsets necessitating radiation hardening.

Carbon Emission from Rocket Launches

Orbital data systems would not only be constrained in orbit itself, but also depend on repeated access to Earth’s atmosphere. This links orbital computing infrastructure directly back to launch dynamics and atmospheric impact. Recent studies of black carbon emissions from rocket fuels, such as by Maloney and Ross, highlight their role in modifying the radiative balance of the stratosphere. Absorption of solar radiation by black carbon leads to localized heating and perturbations in atmospheric chemistry. A heavy launcher, carrying about 1,000 tons of kerosene fuel, releases roughly 10 tons of black carbon into the stratosphere. Black carbon absorbs solar radiation, leading to stratospheric warming. Increased temperatures can affect the rates of ozone-depleting chemical reactions.

Maloney et al. conclude that if rocket engine technology remains unchanged and orbital launch frequency increases by an order of magnitude, significant stratospheric climate and ozone responses are expected, illustrating how expansion of infrastructure to the orbital scale does not decouple it from Earth system constraints.

Space Infrastructure as a Strategic Chokepoint

Space assets are inherently exposed to threats ranging from cyberattacks and signal interference to anti-satellite weapons and orbital debris. As critical digital services become increasingly dependent on space-based systems, these assets may emerge as strategic targets in times of conflict. This creates a structural tension, in which infrastructure designed to enhance resilience by externalizing Earth-based constraints may also introduce new points of systemic vulnerability. 

Governance and Access

These challenges are compounded by limited international governance frameworks. Control over launch capabilities and orbital infrastructure remains a source of geopolitical leverage, contributing to asymmetries between states with access to space and those without. Questions surrounding ownership, resource allocation, and the militarization of dual-use technologies remain unresolved. 

Proposals for satellite mega-constellations, including emerging concepts for space-based AI computing infrastructure, have raised significant concern as they may increase optical and radio-frequency interference. They may complicate ground-based observations that rely on long, uninterrupted exposures to detect faint astronomical signals and perform precise measurements. The astronomical community has engaged in ongoing efforts with industry to develop mitigation strategies to reduce these impacts.

An Amalgamation of Risks

Orbital AI systems may also have implications for international security, particularly as space infrastructure becomes increasingly integrated into critical global systems. The constraint of shifting data centers into space may be neither launch costs nor radio spectrum allocation, but the stability of the upper atmosphere as an operating environment. Orbit is a congested and contested domain where placing critical digital infrastructure presents strategic risks of systemic disruption, interference by coercive regimes, and technical failures cascading across civilian and military systems.