South Korea’s Population and Military in Numbers

The world’s lowest birth rate is not just a statistic for South Korea – it is a ticking time bomb for its national security. The country, grappling with a depressing statistic of 0.76 children born per woman in the first quarter of 2024, is facing a demographic crisis with far-reaching implications. The decline in birth rates threatens not only Korea’s future population growth but also the very backbone of its national security.

With a looming shortage of young men to fulfill mandatory military service, the readiness and sustainability of South Korea’s armed forces are at risk. Since the Defense Reform in 2005, South Korea has relied on maintaining an active-duty force of approximately 500,000 troops to deter and defend against the persistent threats from North Korea. The rapidly shrinking pool of eligible conscripts, however, casts doubt on the military’s ability to uphold this strategic defense posture in the coming years.

Reasons Behind the Population Freefall

The root cause of the plummeting birth rate in Korea can be traced back to several interrelated factors. Research conducted by Seong Young Sohn of Dongduk Women’s University reveals that the younger Korean generations are increasingly worried about the significant economic and emotional burdens associated with raising children. Pervasive gender inequality within the family structure has also placed disproportionate pressure on women. The highly competitive educational system and the uncertainty of future job security further discourage couples from having children. The nature of modern Korean society worsens these concerns, creating an environment where many feel that starting a family is an overwhelming challenge.

Korea’s Population Problem and the Military

Experts including Kwan Ho Cho, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, assert that downsizing South Korea’s military is inevitable due to the persistently low birth rate. He believes that maintaining the Korean Army’s goal of 365,000 troops now seems extremely unlikely, as the military needs to enlist or conscript 200,000 soldiers annually just to sustain current levels. In stark contrast, fewer than 250,000 babies were born in 2022, implying that only about 125,000 men will be available for military service in 20 years.

The grim situation is expected to worsen, with annual newborn numbers projected to drop to 218,000 by 2025 and plummet to 87,000 by 2072. This declining birth rate trend was already foreseen by military strategists, prompting a reduction of active soldiers from 674,000 in 2006 to 500,000 by 2020 under the assumption that North Korean aggression would subside. Unfortunately, this assumption has been disproven, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has significantly expanded North Korea’s military and ballistic missile programs since rising to power in 2011.

Is Transitioning Towards Technology Viable?

South Korea now faces the pressing need to consider a technological transformation to counter the North Korean threat and address its manpower crisis. While plans to develop a science-technology-centric military by 2020 have seen limited progress, the Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated how high-tech weapons and drones can significantly impact larger forces. In response, South Korea has begun integrating new technologies, including AI-based manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) systems and the innovative Army TIGER brigade. The development of unmanned military equipment, such as MUAVs (Medium Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) and UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles), is also underway. Despite these technological advances, the need for manpower still remains critical for territory control, border patrol, and AI system management. There seems to be a need to enhance the existing conscription system and improve the utilization of reserve personnel to address these challenges effectively.

Calls for Female Conscription

South Korean men are required to serve in reserve duties for eight years after completing their mandatory military service, theoretically providing a potential reserve force of 3.1 million troops. However, doubts persist about the effectiveness of this system, as the military needs high-quality personnel capable of combat, and many reservists may be physically unfit for duty. As discussions about increasing the number of professional cadres, including commissioned, warrant, and non-commissioned officers, gain traction, there is also growing advocacy for female conscription.

Despite women comprising only 9% of the military as of 2022 and serving as volunteers, many argue that conscripting women is not only just but essential to solving the military’s population crisis. Nevertheless, the Korean Ministry of Defence has not considered female conscription, even amidst the current population challenges. Compounding this issue is the declining interest in commissioned officer positions, with the Korean Army receiving only 5,815 applications against a target of 7,500 officers in 2022, largely due to insufficient financial and social benefits for soldiers and veterans. With the birth rate projected to drop further to 0.65 births per woman by 2025, the urgency for decisive action has never been greater.

An Existential Threat: Worse Than the Black Death

At the current trajectory, South Korea is on the brink of becoming the world’s first country to face existential disappearance due to population decline. The population problem is so severe some say the decline is even worse than what the world saw during the medieval Black Death. While other nations such as Japan, Germany, or Italy grapple with similar demographic challenges, the severity of the issue in South Korea is unparalleled, posing an existential threat.

The window of opportunity for Korea to address this crisis is rapidly closing; experts claim the next five years will likely determine the fate of Korea’s population. How much will Korea’s population decline impact the future of this country? As the nation stands at a critical juncture, the attention of South Korea’s foes and allies is focused on how the nation will address this challenge and ensure its security for years to come.