The Brexit Vote

Close examinations of the referendum results of 2016 that ushered in the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU quickly revealed that not all constituent countries of the UK saw eye to eye on the matter. In England, 53.4% voted to leave the EU, with 46.6% voting to remain. Scots, on the other hand, voted to stay in the EU by a margin of 24%, with 62% voting to remain and 38% voting for leave. In a nation where the Scottish government has less political leverage that Westminster, many Scots felt that the outcome of the referendum represented a continued neglect of Scotland’s interests.

Brexit’s Impact on Scotland

Following the Brexit referendum, the Scottish government was determined to retain its legal ties to the European Union. On December 20, 2016, the head of the Scottish government, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, published a report titled “Scotland’s Place in Europe,” which offered practical proposals to keep Scotland in the European Single Market. The UK government rejected Sturgeon’s suggestions, and Scotland was subsequently removed from the European Single Market and the Customs Union. Just like England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, Scotland lost many of its customers in having to leave the Single Market, which is approximately seven times the size of the UK’s own economy.

No Consent

The EU Withdrawal Act 2018 fell within the scope of the Sewel Convention, which applies when the UK Parliament seeks to legislate on a matter within the devolved powers of the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd, or the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Scottish parliament voted to withhold consent, to prevent the UK from repealing the European Communities Act 1972, which was the Act that led the UK join the EU. However, the legislation was enacted regardless. This was the first time Westminster had legislated without Scottish consent since the coming into being of the Sewell Convention in 1999.

The EU had long been accepted in Scotland as an alternative centre of power that helped to counterbalance Westminster’s influence. Thus, without the EU’s leverage against England, Scotland found itself more strongly subjected to the power of Westminster.

Scotland’s Relationship with the EU Post-Brexit

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has repeatedly stated that the United Kingdom will not return to the EU’s Single Market or Customs Union. It is a stance that has not discouraged Scotland from maintaining good relations with the EU. Despite attempts to reduce UK involvement in Europe, the Scottish government retains official offices in Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, and Dublin. These branches mainly serve to promote and attract investment to Scotland, as well as to highlight Scottish research in the post-Brexit environment. Scotland also works closely with the Friends of Scotland group in the European Parliament to promote economic, cultural, and trade ties. There appears to be a clear incompatibility of interests between the Scottish government and the UK government regarding EU relations post-Brexit.

Economic Ramifications of the Brexit Vote on Scotland

The decision to leave the European Union posed significant economic costs to the UK as a whole. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that due to Brexit, the UK’s GDP will grow by 4% a year less than if it had stayed in the EU. For Scotland, this estimate represents £3 billion in lost public revenues each year. Moreover, 44% of businesses in Scotland facing difficulties in trading overseas claimed Brexit was the main cause, due to the significant added costs and bureaucratic hurdles induced by the departure from the European Union. For instance, non-tariff barriers, the protracted and complex paperwork, diverging regulatory regimes, and waiting times that businesses now have to cope with when conducting trade with the EU, have increased the time it takes to import and export goods.

The economic costs of Brexit for Scotland are furthermore evident in the European Structural and Investment Funds Programme (ESIF) being replaced by the UK’s Shared Prosperity Fund. The Scottish Government ultimately does not deem this to be a sufficient substitute, as its 3-year £212 million allocation is 61% less than it formerly received.

The Fishing Industry

The fishing industry is particularly vital to Scotland, and in 2022 alone, fishing generated £335 million for the Scottish economy. However, in May 2025, Keir Starmer’s Labour government signed a 12-year deal which grants EU boats continued access to UK waters in exchange for reduced checks and restrictions on food exports. The UK will regain 25% of fishing rights from the European Union, but will also relinquish control of its waters by granting the EU permanent access. Starmer’s move received backlash from the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation (SFF) and Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes due to the lack of consultation with the Scottish Government when drafting the agreement. The SFF expressed frustration over the perceived expendability of the fishing industry, in favour of other UK priorities. However, other members of the Scottish fishing industry have celebrated the deal as a cutting of red tape with Europe. The CEO of Salmon Scotland, Tavish Scott, welcomed it as a beacon for reducing the time it takes to get UK products into the EU market.

Implications for the Scottish Independence Movement

The Scottish Government has described an ideal future as an independent Scotland applying to rejoin the European Union as soon as possible. It lists the benefits of EU membership as including access to the European Single Market, freedom of movement, study abroad opportunities for students, and the ability to represent Scotland’s interests at every level of the EU decision-making process. The desire for Scottish independence amongst Scottish voters oscillates  between 48% and 53%. If there were to be a second Scottish independence referendum in the future, the prospects of EU membership for an independent Scotland would be a consideration for voters.